Sunday, November 06, 2005
Katrina Stirs Bird Flu Fears
So you think it is easy being a corporate executive? Pity the poor CEO of Roche, the sole manufacturer of Tamiflu,now heralded as the “first line of defense” against a world wide epidemic of bird flu. The Bush administration, trying to recover from an image of total incompetence, has announced a plan to spend billions to stockpile Tamiflu. Roche is doing everything it can to prevent anyone else from manufacturing the drug, even though it cannot supply this new worldwide demand.
You would think that a CEO that suppressed production of a life saving drug, risking the death of millions, would have a little trouble sleeping at night. He probably would, if that was all there was to the story. However, there is a lot more, or perhaps, a lot less, to the story.
Tamiflu hasn’t been much of a winner for Roche. It’s expensive, and is no panacea. We are told it has to be taken in the first few days of symptoms, and even then it may only reduce the duration of illness a day or two. Consequently, the only market has been for those that can’t get or can’t take the vaccine, plus some stockpiling by individuals, just in case. For the CEO of Roche there are several more factors. First, there is no epidemic, and if there is one in the future, it might not be bird flu. Second, Tamiflu might not work at all against bird flu. If it works at all, there is no reason to expect it to be more effective than it is against regular flu. Third, companies and other governments are going ahead and producing Tamiflu despite your patent.
That changes the picture. You are not risking millions of deaths. You are standing by to watch a loser turn into a huge transfer of taxpayer money right into your treasury, and you didn’t even create the situation. Your real challenge is how to spin the facts. You can’t let on about the real situation or the tap may be turned off. But as it stands, you look pretty bad. On the other hand, if you play it just right, maybe the taxpayers will consider those billions a cost of the recovery from Katrina.
It's a tough job, but somebody has to do it.
You would think that a CEO that suppressed production of a life saving drug, risking the death of millions, would have a little trouble sleeping at night. He probably would, if that was all there was to the story. However, there is a lot more, or perhaps, a lot less, to the story.
Tamiflu hasn’t been much of a winner for Roche. It’s expensive, and is no panacea. We are told it has to be taken in the first few days of symptoms, and even then it may only reduce the duration of illness a day or two. Consequently, the only market has been for those that can’t get or can’t take the vaccine, plus some stockpiling by individuals, just in case. For the CEO of Roche there are several more factors. First, there is no epidemic, and if there is one in the future, it might not be bird flu. Second, Tamiflu might not work at all against bird flu. If it works at all, there is no reason to expect it to be more effective than it is against regular flu. Third, companies and other governments are going ahead and producing Tamiflu despite your patent.
That changes the picture. You are not risking millions of deaths. You are standing by to watch a loser turn into a huge transfer of taxpayer money right into your treasury, and you didn’t even create the situation. Your real challenge is how to spin the facts. You can’t let on about the real situation or the tap may be turned off. But as it stands, you look pretty bad. On the other hand, if you play it just right, maybe the taxpayers will consider those billions a cost of the recovery from Katrina.
It's a tough job, but somebody has to do it.
